Acceleration: Will Facebook Be Around in Five, Ten, Even Twenty Years?

Acceleration: Will Facebook Be Around in Five, Ten, Even Twenty Years?


1. The future of social networking seems to be all about mobile.  Facebook's updated mobile app is quite effective, proving that perhaps Facebook has the resources and wherewithal to adapt as this trend becomes more ubiquitous.

2. Of course some Facebook apps are meaningless, but there's no doubt that they add to Facebook's power as a platform for just about anything we want.  If Facebook can continue to serve the community's needs and continue its status as a platform then people will keep coming even if the Facebook of the future looks nothing like today's site.

3. Aparently Facebook users could afford to pay if it came to that, and even if Facebook starts charging and loses some of it's market, there are still enough people to sustain it.

4. Although some would agrue that social media is a trend, it seems that it's changing business and communication enough to create a continuing need for people years from now.  People talk, they talk online, and I don't see that changing.

5. Facebook did finally turn a profit


1. Fred Stutzman of the University of North Carolina says in a Newsweek article that the site can't stay cool enough and as a result there will be a "content collapse," meaning people will stop adding content (either because of trust issues or loss of interest) and slowly the site will die.

2. Bobbie Johnson writes in The Guardian about how he's done with social media.

3. The existence of the attention economy brings up the issue of spreading ourselves too thin.  If an early adopter breaks out and helps users make meaning more effectively then there will be a shift.  Unless the two places integrate themselves effectively (maybe the new idea would use facebook as an initial platform for reach but something like Twitter didn't need Facebook to take off and if the new breakout site is the future then it's doubtful they would need it either).

I suppose we'll just have to wait and see.


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